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Climate change is having increasingly profound effects on human health, notably those associated with the occurrence, distribution, and transmission of infectious diseases. The number of disparate ecological parameters and pathogens affected by climate change are vast and expansive. Disentangling the complex relationship between these variables is critical for the development of effective countermeasures against its effects. The pathogenVibrio vulnificus, a naturally occurring aquatic bacterium that causes fulminant septicemia, represents a quintessential climate-sensitive organism. In this review, we useV.vulnificusas a model organism to elucidate the intricate network of interactions between climatic factors and pathogens, with the objective of identifying common patterns by which climate change is affecting their disease burden. Recent findings indicate that in regions native toV.vulnificusor related pathogens, climate-driven natural disasters are the chief contributors to their disease outbreaks. Concurrently, climate change is increasing the environmental suitability of areas non-endemic to their diseases, promoting a surge in their natural populations and transmission dynamics, thus elevating the risk of new outbreaks. We highlight potential risk factors and climatic drivers aggravating the threat ofV.vulnificustransmission under both scenarios and propose potential measures for mitigating its impact. By defining the mechanisms by which climate change influencesV.vulnificusdisease burden, we aim to shed light on the transmission dynamics of related disease-causing agents, thereby laying the groundwork for early warning systems and broadly applicable control measures. 

ABSTRACT Antibiotics are often used to treat severeVibrioinfections, with third-generation cephalosporins and tetracyclines combined or fluoroquinolones alone being recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Increases in antibiotic resistance of both environmental and clinical vibrios are of concern; however, limited longitudinal data have been generated among environmental isolates to inform how resistance patterns may be changing over time. Hence, we evaluated long-term trends in antibiotic resistance of vibrios isolated from Chesapeake Bay waters (Maryland) across two 3-year sampling periods (2009–2012 and 2019–2022).Vibrio parahaemolyticus(n= 134) andVibrio vulnificus(n= 94) toxR-confirmed isolates were randomly selected from both sampling periods and tested for antimicrobial susceptibility against eight antibiotics using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion method. A high percentage (94%–96%) ofV. parahaemolyticusisolates from both sampling periods were resistant to ampicillin and only 2%–6% of these isolates expressed intermediate resistance or resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, amikacin, tetracycline, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. Even lower percentages of resistantV. vulnificusisolates were observed and those were mostly recovered from 2009 to 2012, however, the presence of multiple virulence factors was observed. The frequency of multi-drug resistance was relatively low (6%–8%) but included resistance against antibiotics used to treat severe vibriosis in adults and children. All isolates were susceptible to ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, indicating its sustained efficacy as a first-line agent in the treatment of severe vibriosis. Overall, our data indicate that antibiotic resistance patterns amongV. parahaemolyticusandV. vulnificusrecovered from the lower Chesapeake Bay have remained relatively stable since 2009.IMPORTANCEVibriospp. have historically been susceptible to most clinically relevant antibiotics; however, resistance and intermediate-resistance have been increasingly recorded in both environmental and clinical isolates. Our data showed that while the percentage of multi-drug resistance and resistance to antibiotics was relatively low and stable across time, someVibrioisolates displayed resistance and intermediate resistance to antibiotics typically used to treat severe vibriosis (e.g., third-generation cephalosporins, tetracyclines, sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim, and aminoglycosides). Also, given the high case fatality rates observed withVibrio vulnificusinfections, the presence of multiple virulence factors in the tested isolates is concerning. Nevertheless, the continued susceptibility of all tested isolates against ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, is indicative of its use as an effective first-line treatment of severeVibriospp. infections stemming from exposure to Chesapeake Bay waters or contaminated seafood ingestion. 

Climate change raises an old disease to a new level of public health threat. The causative agent,Vibrio cholerae, native to aquatic ecosystems, is influenced by climate and weather processes. The risk of cholera is elevated in vulnerable populations lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. Predictive intelligence, employing mathematical algorithms that integrate earth observations and heuristics derived from microbiological, sociological, and weather data, can provide anticipatory decision-making capabilities to reduce the burden of cholera and save human lives. An example offered here is the recent outbreak of cholera in Malawi, predicted in advance by such algorithms. 

Large-scale population displacements arising from conflict-induced forced migration generate uncertainty and introduce several policy challenges. Addressing these concerns requires an interdisciplinary approach that integrates knowledge from both computational modeling and social sciences. We propose a generalized computational agent-based modeling framework grounded by Theory of Planned Behavior to model conflict-induced migration outflows within Ukraine during the start of that conflict in 2022. Existing migration modeling frameworks that attempt to address policy implications primarily focus on destination while leaving absent a generalized computational framework grounded by social theory focused on the conflict-induced region. We propose an agent-based framework utilizing a spatiotemporal gravity model and a Bi-threshold model over a Graph Dynamical System to update migration status of agents in conflict-induced regions at fine temporal and spatial granularity. This approach significantly outperforms previous work when examining the case of Russian invasion in Ukraine. Policy implications of the proposed framework are demonstrated by modeling the migration behavior of Ukrainian civilians attempting to flee from regions encircled by Russian forces. We also showcase the generalizability of the model by simulating a past conflict in Burundi, an alternative conflict setting. Results demonstrate the utility of the framework for assessing conflict-induced migration in varied settings as well as identifying vulnerable civilian populations. 

In 2022, one of its worst cholera outbreaks began in Bangladesh, and the Dhaka hospital treated more than 1300 patients and ca. 42,000 diarrheal cases from March-1 to April-10, 2022. Here, we present genomic attributes of V. cholerae O1 responsible for the 2022 Dhaka outbreak and 960 7th pandemic El Tor (7PET) strains from 88 countries. Results show strains isolated during the Dhaka outbreak cluster with 7PET wave-3 global clade strains, but comprise subclade BD-1.2, for which the most recent common ancestor appears to be that responsible for recent endemic cholera in India. BD-1.2 strains are present in Bangladesh since 2016, but not establishing dominance over BD-2 lineage strains until 2018 and predominantly associated with endemic cholera. In conclusion, the recent shift in lineage and genetic attributes, including serotype switching of BD-1.2 from Ogawa to Inaba, may explain the increasing number of cholera cases in Bangladesh. 

Abstract The ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine has forced over eight million people to migrate out of Ukraine. Understanding the dynamics of forced migration is essential for policy-making and for delivering humanitarian assistance. Existing work is hindered by a reliance on observational data which is only available well after the fact. In this work, we study the efficacy of a data-driven agent-based framework motivated by social and behavioral theory in predicting outflow of migrants as a result of conflict events during the initial phase of the Ukraine war. We discuss policy use cases for the proposed framework by demonstrating how it can leverage refugee demographic details to answer pressing policy questions. We also show how to incorporate conflict forecast scenarios to predict future conflict-induced migration flows. Detailed future migration estimates across various conflict scenarios can both help to reduce policymaker uncertainty and improve allocation and staging of limited humanitarian resources in crisis settings. 

Abstract Periodical cicadas (Hemiptera:Magicicada) have coevolved with obligate bacteriome-inhabiting microbial symbionts, yet little is known about gut microbial symbiont composition or differences in composition among allochronicMagicicadabroods (year classes) which emerge parapatrically or allopatrically in the eastern United States. Here, 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing was performed to determine gut bacterial community profiles of three periodical broods, including II (Connecticut and Virginia, 2013), VI (North Carolina, 2017), and X (Maryland, 2021, and an early emerging nymph collected in Ohio, 2017). Results showed similarities among all nymphal gut microbiomes and between morphologically distinct 17-yearMagicicada, namelyMagicicada septendecim(Broods II and VI) and 17-yearMagicicada cassini(Brood X) providing evidence of a core microbiome, distinct from the microbiome of burrow soil inhabited by the nymphs. Generally, phylaBacteroidetes[Bacteroidota] (> 50% relative abundance),Actinobacteria[Actinomycetota], orProteobacteria[Pseudomonadota] represented the core.Acidobacteriaand generaCupriavidus,Mesorhizobium, andDelftiawere prevalent in nymphs but less frequent in adults. The primary obligate endosymbiont,Sulcia(Bacteroidetes), was dominant amongst core genera detected.Chryseobacteriumwere common in Broods VI and X.Chitinophaga, Arthrobacter, andRenibacteriumwere common in Brood X, andPedobacterwere common to nymphs of Broods II and VI. Further taxonomic assignment of unclassifiedAlphaproteobacteriasequencing reads allowed for detection of multiple copies of theHodgkinia16S rRNA gene, distinguishable as separate operational taxonomic units present simultaneously. As major emergences of the broods examined here occur at 17-year intervals, this study will provide a valuable comparative baseline in this era of a changing climate.